The Washington Redskins Mess—Don’t Totally Blame RG3, Blame the Roster Construction

I’ll admit it: I’m shocked by the Redskins 2013 season. It’s been awful. A disgraceful display. But we should have seen this coming. Minus RG3, the Redskins are actually fielding the same players as their horrendous 5-11 2011 team.

Mike Shanahan is in year 4 of his tenure. 2010 and 2011 were bad years, 2012 was a good year. The biggest variation in roster construction is the quarterback. RG3 was not on the team before 2012. In 2012 he was great, in 2013, people think he should be benched.

There are two key questions at play that determine the Redskins future.

1. Is this season’s RG3 an aberration due to a lack of off-season training and a recovering ACL?
2. Is the rest of the Redskins’ roster good enough to win long term?

Looking at the numbers, the answer to #2 is clearly no.

The 2013 Redskins are a model of consistent roster construction. Not only is this a nearly identical roster to the successful 2012 team, but 26 of the 35 key players on this squad were on the 5-11 2011 team. 13 of 35 players were on the 2010 squad as well. In short, Shanahan has had his guys here for at least 3 years. It’s a shame that his guys just aren’t as good as the rest of the NFL.

If you look at a year by year comparison of the roster, the Redskins have the same exact starting O-Line and Linebackers, the same top two corners, and nearly the same D-Line as 2011. Even the back-up tight-ends are the same! Without going in to too much detail, the safety position has been a revolving door of ineptitude. Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon are clear improvements over their 2011 counterparts. 

	2010	2011	2012	2013
Quarterback	McNabb Grossman	Grossman Beck	RG3 Cousins	RG3
RB/FB	Portis Torain D. Young Sellers	Helu Royster Hightower D. Young	Morris Royster Young Helu (IR)	Morris Helu Royster Young
WR	S. Moss NFL Exiles	Moss Hankerson Robinson Gaffney Stallworth N. Paul	Garcon Morgan Moss Hankerson Robinson	Garcon Morgan Moss Hankerson Robinson
TE	Cooley Davis Paulsen	Cooley Davis Paulsen	Cooley Davis Paulsen N. Paul	Reed Davis Paulsen N. Paul
OLINE	Brown/Heyer Dockery Lichtensteiger Montgomery Williams	Brown/Polumbus Chester Lichtensteiger Montgomery Williams	Polumbus Chester Lichtensteiger Montgomery Williams	Polumbus Chester Lichtensteiger Montgomery Williams
DLINE	Haynesworth Carricker Daniels/Holiday Golston	Cofield Bowen Carricker Baker (IR)	Cofield Bowen Carricker Jenkins Golston Baker	Cofield Bowen Carricker (IR) Jenkins Baker Golston
LB	Carter Fletcher Riley Orakpo	Kerrigan Fletcher Riley Orakpo	Kerrigan Fletcher Riley Orakpo	Kerrigan Fletcher Riley Orakpo
CB	Hall Rogers More NFL Exiles	Hall Wilson Exiles	Hall Wilson Exiles	Hall Wilson Amerson
Safety	L. Landry Doughty K. Moore	Atogwe Landry Doughty Gomes	Gomes Doughty Williams	Rambo Merriwhether Doughty Biggers

Source: Wikipedia. Bolded players are three 3 year vets, bold and italic are 4+ year Redskins vets.

If you have the same roster as 2011, you’d expect the same results. That is indeed what we see. The quarterback independent statistics are extremely similar from 2011-2013. Everything is between mid-level and terrible. Football Outsiders has yet to develop team metrics for linebackers and defensive backs, so these stats don’t tell the whole story. But what we see is that except for pass-rush, everything between 2011 and 2013 is mediocre to bad. The clear change between 2011, 2012, and 2013 is the QB performance.

	2010	2011	2012	2013
Record	6-10	5-11	10-6	3-8
Overall Offense	25	19	6	19
Overall Defense	26	14	17	24
Pass Protection	21	15	23	13
Run Blocking	24	10	8	15
Pass Rush	29	9	25	7
Run D-Line Ranking	27	22	17	10
Pass Defense (YDS)	31	12	30	26
QBR	27	24	5	29

Sources: NFL.com for pass defense, Espn.com for QBR, Football Outsiders for the rest.

If 2011 was 5-11 with poor QB play and 2012 10-6 was with excellent QB play, a best case expectation was something in between. A few things were inevitable.

• The league was going to catch-up somewhat to last year’s innovative Redskins offense.
•  An offense that relied on QB mobility would be more difficult to run after the QB had knee surgery.
•  At best, RG3 would perform as well as last year. There was a limited chance of improvement since he couldn’t practice over the summer. Rust was likely.

As a result, if the Redskins were going to improve, the improvement was going to have to come from the rest of the roster. Without draft picks and with an $18 million cap penalty, the Redskins were forced to use the same roster that finished 5-11 in 2011. 

The other implication is that RG3 doesn’t have a chance with this roster as currently constructed. The Redskins have had the same players getting their QB killed for years (just try spending three hours watching RG3 get killed each weekend). Griffin also does not have a great receiver outside of Garcon. Even if RG3 was fully healthy, the Redskins are too often behind because they have had the same characters play consistently terrible on defense for years.

Unfortunately for Redskins fans, with a losing core roster and a rusty QB, the road to respectability let alone a Super Bowl is a long one. Hopefully a real off-season for RG3 and actual cap space to buy some new players can bring the Redskins back to relevance next season.

Likable Blue Devils? The Good, Bad and Ugly of Duke's 2013-2014 Season

  

On November 12, when Duke battled Kansas in an early season matchup between two top-five teams, more than just bragging rights were on the line.  Both programs were vying for the services of top recruits that would be announcing their decision in just a few days.  Lucky for Duke two of the top four college prospects in the class of 2014 committed to play their college ball in Cameron Indoor.  The #1 recruit, Jahlil Okafor and the #4 recruit, Tyus Jones will join Grayson Allen (#36 ranked recruit) and small forward Justise Winslow to head up Duke's top ranked recruiting class next year.

Duke won the recruiting battle today but Kansas took the game Tuesday night, 94-83. 

I thought we'd start by reviewing Duke's performance thus far in 3 sub-sections:  The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.  Because Duke has only played one elite team to date, most analysis will be of the Kansas game.

The Good

Jabari Parker.  This guy can flat out play the game of basketball.  It was evident in the first few minutes of the Kansas game that he is without a doubt Duke's best player, and he has continued to impress ever since.  He can handle the rock, see the floor, shoot the ball, create his own shot and be a physical presence down low.  He knows the game and I expect him to shine all year and easily compete for National Player of the Year, if not win it.  Let’s not forget that Parker is Mormon, and the Jazz are easily the worst team in the league.  Parker might wind up as the #1 pick in 2014 before it’s all said and done.

Amile Jefferson.  Last year Jefferson never looked comfortable on the floor.  Against Kansas he was assertive and seemed much more familiar with his role.  He had some strong takes to the basket and finished well.  I questioned his toughness last year, but it seems he's gotten over his tentative ways and has turned over a new leaf.  He'll be Duke's most improved player.  The biggest downside to Jefferson is that he is Duke’s most polished big man and will have a tough time matching up with more established / sizable 4’s and 5’s this season. 

Rodney Hood's passing ability - Hood struggled offensively, but it's clear he sees the court well and can pass the ball.  I suspect it will take some time for everyone to learn how they'll contribute to the betterment of the team but seeing Hood's vision is encouraging.  An athletic 6'8" forward with great passing ability is rare.  Hood’s ridiculous performances against Florida Atlantic and East Carolina show just what kind of player he can be.  I want to see similar efforts against major programs

Chemistry - Unlike recent years, the 2013-14 Blue Devils squad actually enjoys playing together.  Last year Seth Curry didn't seem to exactly bring the team together.  The year before, producers had to edit game tape before showing it on TV just to remove all the disgusted looks Austin "The blackhole" Rivers got from teammates.  It's a bright note this year seems to have the "team first" attitude. 

The Bad

Quinn Cook - Quinn's game is shaky at best.  Our PG plays concerns me as much as our lack of big men.  Quinn has some major flaws in his game that need immediate improvement if the junior PG wants to be a major contributor.  First, he never changes speeds.  He is always going full speed or no speed.  His play will end in turnovers and never surprise the defense.  Second, his lack of ball handling ability is a concern.  Quinn exposes the ball too often when he's dribbling, again leading to turnovers.  He must protect the rock. If he doesn't do this well he should be concerned Tyler Thornton could take some major PG minutes. 

Marshall Plumlee - Years ago I heard Marshall was the best Plumlee.  Whoever told me that was a damn fool.  He looked like a poor man's Brian Zoubek.  #Yikes.  Maybe I'm being a little tough on Marshall, but I'm very worried about his role on this team.  Speaking of the Plumlee’s, I am incredulous about what Miles is doing in Phoenix this season.  Where was this skill in Durham?

Rasheed Sulaimon's role - Rasheed was undoubtedly one of the brightest spots on last year's team.  I'm worried his role has diminished because of the addition of Parker and Hood.  I really like Sulaimon and hope his fit is found early in the season as we will need him to be our third scorer.  My favorite lineup right now would be Thornton, Sulaimon, Parker, Hood and Jefferson.  We don't need a scoring PG with those other 4 players but we do need Sulaimon to average 13-15 ppg.  Other than the most recent game, Sulaimon’s role still seems to be struggling with his role.

The Ugly

Free Throw Shooting - In the first half of the Kansas game, Duke shot 6-13 from the free throw line and missed the front end of three separate one-and-ones.  That's a possibility of a 10 point swing in the first half!  Historically Duke averages more free throw makes than opponent's attempt.  The team is only shooting 69.5% on the season.  On this night Duke could have even learned free throw techniques from this mope:

Post Defense - Duke had no defense down low.  A well coached team like Kansas did an excellent job all night spreading the floor and allowing for a one-on-one post-up.  This automatically caused Duke to cheat and play help side defense which allows an open man on the perimeter.  Kansas attacked this early and often and this could prove to be a very sore spot in Duke's hope to make a deep run this year.  Duke made Perry Ellis (who really isn't bad) look like Ralph Sampson. 

Questions going forward

·         Can Rodney Hood create his own shot?

·         Can Quinn Cook protect the rock and run an efficient offense?

·         Will Andre Dawkins re-appear and contribute instant offense by draining 3s?

·         Can Rasheed Sulaimon find his role and be the key contributor Duke needs to make a deep run?

·         What happens in the post when Amile Jefferson gets in foul trouble?

This is my favorite Duke team since 2010.  They will be both fun to watch and easy to cheer for.  Also, this might be the first in my lifetime Duke's best player won't be hated.  In fact, I believe Jabari Parker will be respected and adored throughout college basketball.  He's just likable.