Thursday, November 14, 2013

NBA Western Conference Over/Under Two-Weeks-In Preview


We are about nine games into the NBA regular season, so it’s obviously the perfect time to put up our Western Conference preview.  I promise these are the original predictions.  Look for semi-regular installments where BDL’s gambling guru checks in on our wagers.

Remember, the line is how many games Vegas thought these teams could win during the regular season, such that an equal number of people bet on the Over (more wins) or Under (less wins).  The lines aren't perfect, that's for sure (see:  Suns, Nuggets).

Our gambling guru, Juice, put real money down on the bets with $$$ beside them.

Phoenix Suns
Line:  20 ½
Chuck:  Under
Juice:  Under $$$
Chuck Says:  Any team that starts Miles Plumlee is headed straight for a top 3 pick.  Eric Bledsoe is legit though.

Utah Jazz
Line:  25 ½
Chuck:  Under
Juice: Push (24-27 wins) (Editor’s Note:  Choosing a Push is still a cop out.)
Juice Says:  Ouch, I'm guessing they don't full on tank, but I don't feel good.

Sacramento Kings
Line:  31 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Under
Chuck Says:  I love Boogie Cousins.  I suspect he will surprise some people.  Plus, I’m a huge fan of Ben McLemore.

Los Angeles Lakers
Line:  36 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Over
Juice Says:  16 wins against the East, plus 9 wins in division = 25, meaning 14-22 against the rest of the west.  Over, but I don't feel good.  Then again, Kobe will probably rush his return and start dropping 30 points a game.

Portland Trailblazers
Line:  38 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Over $$$
Chuck Says:  LaMarcus Aldridge plus Nicolas Batum equals many wins.  Also, this line just seems a little low.

New Orleans Pelicans
Line:  39 ½
Chuck:  Under
Juice:  Under
Juice Says:  Stay away for me. Very young, lots of potential, but a rough schedule and very green team.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Line:  41 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Over $$$
Chuck Says:  Kevin Love needs to make the playoffs and they get to play a ton of games against the Nuggets and Jazz who I think will be pretty bad.  I am very excited to see what Ricky Rubio can do this year.

Dallas Mavericks
Line:  43 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Under
Juice Says:  I love Dirk, but I think this may be the year to sell his stock.  Look at their division! (I'd rather run backwards through a cornfield than face that).

Denver Nuggets
Line:  45 ½
Chuck:  Under
Juice:  Under
Chuck Says:  No Iggy, no George Karl and way too much Javale McGee.  Ty Lawson is one of my favorite Tar Heels of all time, but I’m not sure he’s ready to be the leader of a playoff team.

Memphis Grizzlies
Line:  50 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Push (49-52 wins)
Juice Says:  The rich man's Pistons. But they are stuck in the group of death. I like them, but can I get a shooter to slow down double teams?!

Golden State Warriors
Line:  50 ½
Chuck:  Under
Juice:  Under
Chuck Says:  I am not a fan of the Iguodala trade.  The Dubs played so well in the playoffs with Harrison Barnes as a stretch-4.  This is also a bet against Steph Curry staying healthy all season.  I feel pretty good about this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Line:  52 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Over $$$
Juice Says:  Will have to play for seeding till the end, especially if Westbrook's leg slows them early, very soft March/April schedule.

Houston Rockets
Line:  54 ½
Chuck:  Under
Juice:  Push (53-55 wins)
Chuck Says:  Mark me down as someone who is not a believer in Dwight Howard.  He is not the guy who will anchor the middle of a championship team.  Just doesn’t have the heart.  I’m also very skeptical of their point guard situation.

San Antonio Spurs
Line:  55 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Over
Juice Says:  They play in the division from hell. The new guard is really starting to fill in for the old…so much for the dynasty being over in 2010.

Los Angeles Clippers
Line:  56 ½
Chuck:  Over
Juice:  Under
Juice Says:  Oh, they are going to score, but their defense might be really bad.  Can Doc work his magic?

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