Monday, December 16, 2013

Brews and Baseball: The Cost of Tipping Back a Pint While Watching Your Local Nine

How many days until pitchers and catchers report? As the snow piles up in many parts of the country, the thought of sitting in the bleachers with a beer in one hand, peanuts in the other, warms the soul a bit. During these dark days, when we have to endure Scott Boras monologues and some team giving Matt Garza $10 million plus a year, don't forget, that cost will be passed on to us, the fans, one way or another.

Every so often, a list comes out of the most expensive beers in the big leagues. It comes as no shock that a beer at Fenway Park or Yankee Stadium will set you back a bit. However, a beer anywhere in Boston or New York City is not going to be cheap. Most things are expensive in New York and Boston. When you factor in the local price index for beer, is a beer at Yankee Stadium more expensive than a beer at Miller Park?

To settle the score, I calculated the markup on a pint of beer compared to the cost of a price of a domestic pint a local bar. Below are some important notes:
The table speaks for itself. It looks like the Reds are trying to compete with the Cardinals in more ways than one. Remember this table next time you head out to the ole ball yard. Might be time to invest in a flask (a plastic one). 



Team
Avg. Price of Pint of Beer at MLB Stadium Avg. Price of Beer Per Ounce at MLB Stadium Median Price of Pint of Beer in Local Area Median Price of Beer Per Ounce in Local Area

Markup
St. Louis Cardinals  $9.46 $0.56 $3.00 $0.18 215%
Cincinnati Reds  $7.77 $0.46 $2.75 $0.16 183%
Boston Red Sox  $10.14 $0.60 $3.95 $0.23 157%
Atlanta Braves  $7.61 $0.45 $3.00 $0.18 154%
Detroit Tigers  $7.10 $0.42 $3.00 $0.18 137%
Tampa Bay Rays  $7.10 $0.42 $3.00 $0.18 137%
Kansas City Royals  $6.93 $0.41 $3.00 $0.18 131%
Miami Marlins $6.76 $0.40 $3.00 $0.18 125%
Milwaukee Brewers  $6.42 $0.38 $3.00 $0.18 114%
Houston Astros  $6.08 $0.36 $3.00 $0.18 103%
Baltimore Orioles  $6.42 $0.38 $3.25 $0.19 98%
Pittsburgh Pirates  $5.75 $0.34 $3.00 $0.18 92%
Chicago Cubs  $7.61 $0.45 $4.00 $0.24 90%
Cleveland Indians  $5.58 $0.33 $3.00 $0.18 86%
Washington Nationals  $8.79 $0.52 $4.81 $0.28 83%
Chicago White Sox  $6.93 $0.41 $4.00 $0.24 73%
Seattle Mariners  $7.77 $0.46 $4.50 $0.27 73%
Arizona Diamondbacks  $4.90 $0.29 $3.00 $0.18 63%
Colorado Rockies  $6.42 $0.38 $4.00 $0.24 61%
Minnesota Twins  $6.42 $0.38 $4.00 $0.24 61%
Toronto Blue Jays  $8.79 $0.52 $5.50 $0.33 60%
Philadelphia Phillies  $6.25 $0.37 $4.00 $0.24 56%
Oakland Athletics  $6.08 $0.36 $4.00 $0.24 52%
San Diego Padres  $6.08 $0.36 $4.25 $0.25 43%
San Francisco Giants  $7.10 $0.42 $5.00 $0.30 42%
New York Yankees  $8.45 $0.50 $6.00 $0.36 41%
New York Mets  $8.11 $0.48 $6.00 $0.36 35%
Los Angeles Dodgers  $6.59 $0.39 $5.00 $0.30 32%
Texas Rangers  $5.24 $0.31 $4.00 $0.24 31%
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim  $4.73 $0.28 $5.00 $0.30 -5%

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Revisiting the Most Tantalizing 2013-14 NBA Car Accidents: One Quarter of the Season In

After a long hiatus, it's great to be back in the BDL writing studio. At roughly the first quarter mark of the NBA season, let's take a look at my predictions for the most tantalizing "Car Accidents" of the 2013-14 NBA season. Remember, the definition for "Car Accident" here is, you shouldn't look, but you can't take your eyes off. Here we go!

1. The New York Knickerbockers: Where do we begin? This is my number one pick and I couldn't even predict this dysfunction. If it weren't for the rivaling ineptitude across the East River with the Brooklyn Nets, the Knicks' drama might never make it off the New York Post back pages. In case you've been in a cave since October, here's what's gone down for James Dolan's squad:

  • Carmelo may leave via free agency. Come on Carmelo, what's not to like in New York? Only Jim Boeheim, Carmelo's college coach, could achieve less with more talent than Jason Kidd and Mike Woodson.
  • Chris Smith (J.R.'s brother) has a contract with the team. The same Chris Smith that hasn't averaged double figures since his sophomore year at Manhattan (not in two years at Louisville or 1+ years in the NBADL). 
  • J.R. Smith shoots a lower percentage than the fans they bring out for half court shots at half time in OKC. 
  • Iman Shumpert is the one young guy they have that defends and has potential to improve, and he's been floated in trade talks with everyone. Makes you wonder if Edward Snowden is in charge of the Knicks Management's media relations. Everyone got a good laugh out of the Knicks thinking they could land Kenneth Faried or Rondo. Aim high!
  • Raymond Felton may eat himself out of New York again.
  • Andrea Bargnani hasn't been too bad. He even stood up to fake tough guy KG.
  • Metta World Peace and Kenyon Martin had it out, allegedly. Apparently, they're both ardent supporters of their favorite pasta.
When Metta World Peace doesn't crack your starting five of crazy, then you're doing something right. Keep it up, Knicks! New blog post idea: Mt. Rushmore of Spoiled, Egotistical, Meddlesome Owners - How about James Dolan, Jim Irsay, Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones to start?

2. Michael Beasley!: Mike's recovered nicely from his self-inflicted head trauma in the preseason and has looked more like the Mike at Kansas State than Mike the Minnesota Timberwolf. Mike's Per 36 minute averages are off the charts. How about 23.2 points and 8.2 boards on .500 three point, .554 two point, and .769 free throw percentages? Free Mike!

3. Riggin' for Wiggins: Who will be the number one pick in this year's draft is a topic for another blog post, but our favorites for the most ping pong balls didn't get the memo. Phoenix, Philly and Boston have exceeded expectations, by leaps and bounds. Utah looks to be the leader in the clubhouse for the most ping pong balls. They're posturing for the Mormon Mamba, Jabari Parker!

4. Javale McGee's Increased Minutes: Javale went down in early November with a stress fracture in his tibia. Best wishes to Javale for a speedy recovery. The 'Not Top 10' hasn't been the same without him!

5. The Great Dwight Hype/Redemption Tour: The consensus is that the Rockets signed a better version of the Lakers' Dwight and maybe 75% of the Magic Dwight. If Houston cuts down any nets, it will be because James Harden decided to start playing defense and leads the team to a championship. Circle your calendars, Wednesday January 8, 2014, Lakers at Houston. Trust that it's circled on Kobe's calendar.

Good to be back on BDL. We'll check back in at the All-Star break. Until then, enjoy the insanity!



Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Happy Holidays From BDL

Dear Bald Don't Lie faithful:

First of all, seasons greetings! Secondly, on behalf of all BDL contributors, we apologize that we have been absent for the last couple of weeks. For everyone in school crumpling under the weight of finals or those trying to entertain themselves at boring family reunions or the like, we understand that solid BDL content would be extremely timely right now. However, the BDL staff has been more naughty than nice and have fallen prey to final exam week. But rest assured, we will be back. Christmas will come early this year on Bald Don't Lie. Future potential topics includes: 12 days of [insert any sports topic here], tacky sweater party alternatives, top five things about the holiday season, who will be the next NBA coach to get fired, etc. Get hyped.

In the meantime here is a nice tune to get you geared up for the holiday season:


Sincerely,
BDL


Thursday, November 28, 2013

The Washington Redskins Mess—Don’t Totally Blame RG3, Blame the Roster Construction




I’ll admit it: I’m shocked by the Redskins 2013 season. It’s been awful. A disgraceful display. But we should have seen this coming. Minus RG3, the Redskins are actually fielding the same players as their horrendous 5-11 2011 team.

Mike Shanahan is in year 4 of his tenure. 2010 and 2011 were bad years, 2012 was a good year. The biggest variation in roster construction is the quarterback. RG3 was not on the team before 2012. In 2012 he was great, in 2013, people think he should be benched.

There are two key questions at play that determine the Redskins future.

  1. Is this season’s RG3 an aberration due to a lack of off-season training and a recovering ACL?
  2. Is the rest of the Redskins’ roster good enough to win long term?

Looking at the numbers, the answer to #2 is clearly no.

The 2013 Redskins are a model of consistent roster construction. Not only is this a nearly identical roster to the successful 2012 team, but 26 of the 35 key players on this squad were on the 5-11 2011 team. 13 of 35 players were on the 2010 squad as well. In short, Shanahan has had his guys here for at least 3 years. It’s a shame that his guys just aren’t as good as the rest of the NFL.

If you look at a year by year comparison of the roster, the Redskins have the same exact starting O-Line and Linebackers, the same top two corners, and nearly the same D-Line as 2011. Even the back-up tight-ends are the same! Without going in to too much detail, the safety position has been a revolving door of ineptitude. Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon are clear improvements over their 2011 counterparts. 


2010
2011
2012
2013
Quarterback
McNabb
Grossman
Grossman
Beck
RG3
Cousins
RG3
RB/FB
Portis
Torain
D. Young
Sellers
Helu
Royster
Hightower
D. Young
Morris
Royster
Young
Helu (IR)
Morris
Helu
Royster
Young
WR
S. Moss
NFL Exiles
Moss
Hankerson
Robinson
Gaffney
Stallworth
N. Paul
Garcon
Morgan
Moss
Hankerson
Robinson

Garcon
Morgan
Moss
Hankerson
Robinson

TE
Cooley
Davis
Paulsen
Cooley
Davis
Paulsen
Cooley
Davis
Paulsen
N. Paul
Reed
Davis
Paulsen
N. Paul
OLINE
Brown/Heyer
Dockery
Lichtensteiger
Montgomery
Williams
Brown/Polumbus
Chester
Lichtensteiger
Montgomery
Williams
Polumbus
Chester
Lichtensteiger
Montgomery
Williams
Polumbus
Chester
Lichtensteiger
Montgomery
Williams
DLINE
Haynesworth
Carricker
Daniels/Holiday
Golston
Cofield
Bowen
Carricker
Baker (IR)
Cofield
Bowen
Carricker
Jenkins
Golston
Baker
Cofield
Bowen
Carricker (IR)
Jenkins
Baker
Golston
LB
Carter
Fletcher
Riley
Orakpo
Kerrigan
Fletcher
Riley
Orakpo
Kerrigan
Fletcher
Riley
Orakpo
Kerrigan
Fletcher
Riley
Orakpo
CB
Hall
Rogers
More NFL Exiles
Hall
Wilson
Exiles
Hall
Wilson
Exiles
Hall
Wilson
Amerson
Safety
L. Landry
Doughty
K. Moore
Atogwe
Landry
Doughty
Gomes

Gomes
Doughty
Williams
Rambo
Merriwhether
Doughty
Biggers
Source: Wikipedia. Bolded players are three 3 year vets, bold and italic are 4+ year Redskins vets.

If you have the same roster as 2011, you’d expect the same results. That is indeed what we see. The quarterback independent statistics are extremely similar from 2011-2013. Everything is between mid-level and terrible. Football Outsiders has yet to develop team metrics for linebackers and defensive backs, so these stats don’t tell the whole story. But what we see is that except for pass-rush, everything between 2011 and 2013 is mediocre to bad. The clear change between 2011, 2012, and 2013 is the QB performance.


2010
2011
2012
2013
Record
6-10
5-11
10-6
3-8





Overall Offense
25
19
6
19
Overall Defense
26
14
17
24
Pass Protection
21
15
23
13
Run Blocking
24
10
8
15
Pass Rush
29
9
25
7
Run D-Line Ranking
27
22
17
10
Pass Defense (YDS)
31
12
30
26
QBR
27
24
5
29
Sources: NFL.com for pass defense, Espn.com for QBR, Football Outsiders for the rest.

If 2011 was 5-11 with poor QB play and 2012 10-6 was with excellent QB play, a best case expectation was something in between. A few things were inevitable.

  • The league was going to catch-up somewhat to last year’s innovative Redskins offense.
  •  An offense that relied on QB mobility would be more difficult to run after the QB had knee surgery.
  •  At best, RG3 would perform as well as last year. There was a limited chance of improvement since he couldn’t practice over the summer. Rust was likely.

As a result, if the Redskins were going to improve, the improvement was going to have to come from the rest of the roster. Without draft picks and with an $18 million cap penalty, the Redskins were forced to use the same roster that finished 5-11 in 2011. 

The other implication is that RG3 doesn’t have a chance with this roster as currently constructed. The Redskins have had the same players getting their QB killed for years (just try spending three hours watching RG3 get killed each weekend). Griffin also does not have a great receiver outside of Garcon. Even if RG3 was fully healthy, the Redskins are too often behind because they have had the same characters play consistently terrible on defense for years.

Unfortunately for Redskins fans, with a losing core roster and a rusty QB, the road to respectability let alone a Super Bowl is a long one. Hopefully a real off-season for RG3 and actual cap space to buy some new players can bring the Redskins back to relevance next season.