Wednesday, February 26, 2014

State of the State Address

State of the State

My fellow Americans and Wolfpack nation:

We are almost finished with the college basketball regular season, so it’s time to start projecting outside scenarios for the Pack making the tournament.

Team A                                   Team B                                   Team C                      
Record: 19-9                           Record: 17-10                      Record: 18-11
ESPN RPI: 51                        RPI: 54                                 RPI: 63                      
SOS: 88                                   SOS: 36                                 SOS: 30

According to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology, Team A and C are in the tournament, but Team B is not even on the last 8 out. The above picture is incomplete – as quality wins and record against the top 50 are important – but we can see that there is no clear frontrunner, and Team B may have the strongest overall case according to these numbers.

Team A is Xavier, Team B is NC State, Team C is St. John’s.

The only real feather in Xavier and St. John's cap is a win against the RPI top 25, otherwise everything else is pretty equal. My point is that the margin is razor-thin, and a few key wins or losses late in the season can swing the entire selection process.                                  

Last year, NC State lost about 80% of its scoring output to the NBA D-League and Europe, and was picked to finish 10th (out of 15) in the ACC.  NC State both got screwed and screwed itself out of a huge marquee win on the road over Syracuse. Seriously, has any school done so much to become hated so quickly as Syracuse has done since joining the ACC? As a team in the muddled middle, State must win at home tonight over arch-rival – and perhaps the hottest team in the country – UNC. Surely you, faithful BDL reader and casual college basketball fan, surely you don't want the bad guys to win, do you?

Unfortunately, much of the game will be decided by how much ACC commissioner and ex-UNC Athletic Director John Swofford interferes with the game via his personal body guard: the ACC officials. Yes, he is in fact God and does all he can to help UNC win from his perch in Greensboro. Here is conclusive evidence of the conspiracy:


State has one of the most prolific scorers in the nation in TJ Warren – actually the leading scorer among all the power conferences – who has gone off for 27 ppg in the last 4 contests. There will have to be an “I” in victory if State is to beat UNC: he’ll need to drop at least 30 to pull it off.

Point guard carousel:
Life is like the NC State point guard rotation, you never know what you’re gonna get.
Both McDonald’s All-Americans, Sophomore Tyler Lewis, affectionately dubbed “Bilbo Baggins” by the Crazies, and Anthony Barber, affectionately dubbed “Cat” by his sister, are the two players. Both players have been healthy all season, yet the rotation has been inconsistent.

·      In a 10 game stretch from December to mid-January:
o   Lewis averaged 11.7 minutes per game
o   Barber averaged 29.1 minutes per game
·      In the last 5 games:
o   Lewis averaged 22.8 minutes per game
o   Barber averaged 13.8 minutes per game

I don’t love the “what have you done for me lately” coaching strategy, but it seems that this is all State has at the moment.

Remaining schedule predictions and accompanying rationale:
Home versus UNC (win/loss)
1.     The “they’re due” argument? Last game UNC shot 11-15 on 3 pointers. Nobody is that good, it is an anomaly, and they will have an equally awful game shooting in Raleigh.
2.     This game means so much more to State than UNC. This applies both on the court and off the court. For state fans, this is our one game season. After getting screwed out of a big win up in Syracuse, this is our chance.

Home versus Miami  (win)
Miami is terrible and we already beat them on the road.

@ Pittsburgh (win/loss)
So, not sure about this, but I feel like State will split between this game and the UNC game.

Home versus Boston College (win)
Don’t let the Syracuse upset fool you: they’re awful.

Final record: 20-11
State will need to pick up a win or two in the ACC tournament to put on their dancing shoes. I think it happens, and this year, we are 12 or 13 seed-bound.


These are troubled times for our program, but in the words of Jimmy V: “Don’t give up, don’t ever give up.” God bless the Wolfpack, and God bless America.

1 comment:

  1. Xavier beating St. John's last night, probably means SJU lost its automatic bid. What separates NCSU is that Xavier beat Cincinnati on a neutral floor, and NCSU lost to Cincinnati on the road.

    I think NCSU deserves a bid over say the 4-5 ranked team from the SEC.

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