Last Thursday night the
Charlotte Bobcats continued their streak of puzzling draft selections by taking
Indiana power forward Cody Zeller with the 4th overall pick. By now, you have
probably seen pundits criticizing Zeller, the Bobcats or both. Why didn’t the Bobcats take Noel, Len or
McLemore? This must be another one of
those “Michael Jordan” picks. To many
Bobcats fans, myself included, the Zeller pick was unexpected. The professionals agreed. ESPN draft
analyst Chad Ford calls Zeller “a major reach” and Yahoo’s Kelly Dwyer (a no-talent clown) grave the selection a “D”.
He summarized his reasoning saying, “this grade has nothing to do with
Michael Jordan’s drafting history oh wait yes it totally does.”
Allow me to offer my
grade of the Bobcats 2013 draft: Incomplete
It is ridiculous to grade
a draft the night, week or even month following the draft. Fans and
analysts alike have to wait and see what other moves teams make and how new
players develop in the summer league and their first few months in the league. I love looking at draft grades a few years
after to laugh at how off some predictions are. Here are a few of my
favorite examples of “Draft Grades Gone Wrong.”
2008 NBA Draft:
Giving the Milwaukee Bucks an A for drafting Joe Alexander, the Bulls a B for
Derrick Rose and the Sonics/Thunder a C
for Russell Westbrook. (Draft Express)
2009 NBA Draft: An A for the Knicks
after taking Jordan Hill? How about a D for Milwaukee after grabbing
Brandon Jennings? Sometimes the pundits do get it right though and we
should acknowledge them. For instance, appropriately
giving the Thunder a D for drafting Byron Mullens. (CBSsports)
2010 NBA Draft:
How’d that Ed Davis pick work out for you, Toronto? (A-) Or grabbing
Al-Farouq Aminu out of Wake Forest, L.A? (A-) I’m pretty sure none
of the guys OKC drafted in 2010 are on the current roster. (B+) (Sports
Illustrated)
2011 NBA Draft:
Any fond memories of Josh Selby in Memphis? (A) How about Jan Vesely, Chris
Singleton and Shelvin Mack for the Wiz? (A+) (Yahoo!)
2012 NBA Draft: Miles
Plumee really earned that B+ for the Pacers, right? Just kidding he got
an F. But did Kendall Marshall deserve a B+? Probably not.
Thomas Robinson a B? Terrence Ross an A? (Fox Sports)
Sure, sometimes
analysts get it right. But more often than not, doling out grades shortly
after the draft is a fool’s game. So, before I get into my Cody Zeller
analysis, just know there is a very good chance I am wrong. However, I’ll
be willing to bet he develops into a much nicer piece for the Bobcats than Chad
Ford or Kelly Dwyer predict. So let’s get to it with a Q & A.
Nerlens Noel, Ben
McLemore and Alex Len were all available for the 4th pick. Why didn’t the ‘cats grab
one of them?
Hindsight is 20/20,so
this answer now looks fairly straightforward. The Bobcats already have a
player like Noel in Bismack Biyombo. Nerlens might have a higher upside,
but he also has a torn ACL. Biz can rebound and is a tremendous shot
blocker. Both are limited offensively. It makes sense to stick with
known quantity.
Len is slightly
different, but the same general idea applies. Len is limited by injury
and has the potential to do big things in the NBA. But, he couldn't crack
the All-ACC team this season so we have to question his upside. If you
are Charlotte and you already have offensively limited big man project in
Biyombo, why take another one especially when his greatest asset could be that
he used to by a gymnast?
As I mentioned in an
earlier post, the Bobcats were only going to take McLemore if they were
comfortable letting Henderson walk. The
Bobcats have already given Henderson a qualifying offer making him a restricted
free agent, so it looks like he is here to stay. Plus, no matter how terrible you are as a
team, and the Bobcats are bad, you don’t draft to replace your second best
player. Skipping over McLemore does make me curious about their strategy
if Oladipo was on the board at 4.
What does Cody
Zeller bring to the table?
First and foremost,
Cody Zeller is not Byron Mullens, so there is dramatic improvement right
there. Yes, Zeller had a terrible game against Syracuse in the Sweet 16
and saw his draft stock (supposedly) drop for it. But, he was a top 3
pick before the season and averaged 16.5 points and 8.1 rebounds a game in the
Big 10. Zeller can fill Mullen’s role as a stretch 4 and do a lot of
things defensively Mullens never cared to do, like rebound and generally care.
With the addition of Patrick Ewing to Steve Clifford’s staff, we can be sure
Zeller will receive the attention he needs to develop his post game and improve
his interior defense. We also know he can run which will be nice to see
considering Mullens typically played between the 3-point lines.
Why did the Bobcats
draft Zeller if they are going to sign Al Jefferson?
If you've followed free
agency, you’ll see that the Bobcats are hosting Al Jefferson today in
Charlotte. Jefferson, the Utah big man, is one of the most sought after
free agents whom most analysts have pegged going to a contender.
Jefferson has career averages of around 16.5 points and 9 rebounds a
game. He is known as a powerful low post presence and a terrible defender.
He will command around 10-12 million dollars a year. If the Bobcats sign
Jefferson, I think it is a signal they want to “win” now, as in win around 30
games instead of 25. It will also spell the end of Brendan Haywood and
Jeff Adrien ever seeing the court. (Looks like McBobs is leaving
regardless) They might also believe they will not make a splash in free
agency next season no matter how much money they can clear up. Having an
established veteran on the team isn’t a terrible idea, especially since his
addition will not keep the Bobcats out of next year’s loaded draft
lottery. I do not believe the Bobcats will sign Jefferson, not because
they do not want to, but because he wants to play on a contender.
Projected Starting
Lineup WITH Jefferson: Walker, MKG, Henderson, Jefferson, Biyombo.
(Zeller, Sessions, Gordon, Taylor in the rotation)
Projected Starting
Lineup WITHOUT Jefferson: Walker, MKG, Zeller, Biyombo. (Haywood,
Sessions,
Gordon, Taylor in the rotation)
This will do it for my NBA analysis for a while
unless some big Bobcats news occurs. I
plan on writing about the 2016 Presidential race, the Washington Nationals and
the British Open in the coming weeks.
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