NBA Mock Draft Part I - The Lottery

With only four days until the 2014 NBA draft, the Bald Don't Lie Team makes their picks for the lottery.  Look for the remaining selections of the first round and second round sleepers on Wednesday.

1. Cleveland – Jabari Parker, Duke – Smallish Forward

This is what I wrote last week:   Cleveland has front court needs. Luol Deng is a free agent and will likely be looking for a new home next season.  Thompson is due for a pay raise after a decent 2013-14, and is likely in the Cavs' plans at the 4-spot in the future.  Varejao can’t stay healthy, only has one season left on his contract, and hasn’t been a dominant player since 2010 (when LeBron left).  The Irving-Waiters dynamic is something to keep an eye on, but there aren’t any candidates for the first pick that will immediately remedy their personal problems.  Of course, LeBron’s potential free agency shape’s all of Cleveland’s moves, but picking up a possible All-Star big man is the best move to win now, and lure The King back to Cleveland.

Taking Embiid first overall would have been a no-brainer, except for the broken bone in his foot.  Now Cleveland is faced with a difficult choice:  choose the best player on the board (Embiid) or choose a player who will simultaneously move the Cavs closer to the playoffs and hedge against LeBron.  That player is Jabari Paker.  I witnessed Jabari play several times this season in person at Cameron Indoor.  He has range, can bully smaller opponents and seems like a very happy player on the court.  He  is a James Harden-esque defender and is a little soft in the middle.  But the kid can put the biscuit in the basket, and ought to be scoring 20 ppg by his third season.

2. Milwaukee – Andrew Wiggins, Kansas – Shooting Guard

As a long-suffering Charlotte Professional Basketball fan, I can sympathize with the disaster that is the Bucks team.  Fortunately, the Bucks were recently purchased by a new ownership group who seems determined to field a competitive team.  In order for the Bucks to improve, they have to determine who will be part of their core.  The Greek Freak can play, and Knight has shown glimpses of stardom.  I am partial to Henson’s ability to play as well.  An SG is the most glaring need.  Middleton is a decent offensive player, but he is a sieve on D.  Wiggins is the pick here if Parker is off the board.  I won’t be surprised to see Dante Exum jump up here if he continues to impress in his workouts and is willing to play some 2 in the NBA.  Another thing to consider is that Embiid agent is actively steering him away from Milwaukee.

3. Philadelphia – Joel Embiid, Kansas – Center

The 76ers have an awesome opportunity to be horrible again by taking Embiid as a draft and stash, just like Nerlens Noel last season.  I’m not sure exactly how an Embiid Noel front court would look, but I’m also not sure Noel is going to be any good this season.  I think taking the Kansas big man is a smart move for a team that is only looking to collect assets, and isn’t too concerned with their actual record.

4. Orlando – Dante Exum, International Man of Mystery, Australia - Guard

I like what's going on in Orlando.  Jacque Vaughn is a decent, young coach.  Victor Oladipo showed tremendous promise last season, and the line-up is surprisingly complete for a team looking to finish in the top 11 in the East.   Jameer Nelson has a movable contract for any team looking for a veteran point guard next season.  The real question in Orlando is Afflalo, who is due a little under $16 million the next two seasons.  Afflalo may look appealing for a team looking for a wing scorer, though his defense is a question mark.  His departure seems likely if the Magic grab Exum.  A backcourt of Oladipo and Exum will be electrifying.

5. Utah – Aaron Gordon, Arizona – PF/Freak Athlete

If Gordon Hayward leaves this summer without reasonable and productive compensation, the Jazz are in trouble.  Their front court has two strong pieces in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, but in a draft filled with big men with upside, it makes sense drafting a big here, unless the Jazz feel strongly about Marcus Smart.  A sign-and-trade with Hayward to Philly plus the 5 pick in exchange for the 3 pick wouldn’t be a shocker, given the Jazz’s known infatuation with Jabari Parker.  I believe the Jazz take Gordon here because of his Blake Griffen-esque upside.  Even if Gordon only amounts to 80% of Blake, that is still a terrific player, and someone who can grow alongside Trey Burke for the next decade.

6. Boston – Marcus Smart, OKST – Combo Guard

The Celtics have needs across the board, but the real question concerning their future is Rajon Rondo.  Does Boston still want him to be their point guard moving forward, or do they see more value in moving Rondo for more pieces to re-build?  I think the Celtics will go with the latter and draft Marcus Smart, who has the build and game of the new-age 1.5’s – someone who isn’t really a point guard and isn’t really a 2-guard like Russell Westbrook, Lance Stevenson and Victor Oladipo.  Brad Stevens is an excellent coach, and should be able to get the most out of Smart.  Of course, the Celts may pull off a coup and acquire Kevin Love, and if that happens, all bets are off concerning this pick.

7. Los Angeles Lakers – Noah Vonleh, Indiana – Power Forward

Care to guess who led the Lakers last season in Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), Offensive Rating (OTR) and Player Efficiency Rating (PER)?  If you guessed Jordan Hill, you win a cookie.  Hill is a great representation of the Laker’s dumpster fire of a season, one where Kobe Bryant was a non-factor, Jodie Meeks and Swaggy P rose to quasi-stardom in the Hollywood Hills and Kendall Marshall resurrected his career by provided 8.8 assists and 40% 3 point shooting per game.  The Lakers need help everywhere, and probably will address their most glaring needs via free agency and trades.  Picking up a piece like Noah Vonleh here will be nice.  

8. Sacramento – Julius Randle, Kentucky – Power Forward

We found out yesterday that Rudy Gay is opting into his massive contract for next season.  The Kings also have a tough young guard in Isaiah Thomas and invested their 2013 first round pick in Ben McLemore.  Their big holes are at the PF position and their entire bench.  Most reports I’ve read online seem to indicate that the Kings are looking to move this pick, but if Randle is still on the board, I have a hard time believing that the Kings, or whomever they trade with won’t take the Kentucky big man.  I am not in love with Randle’s game.  Perhaps it was the way he was used by Coach Cal, but I need to see him hit more 15 footers before I am total believer.  Randle is a known commodity among the freshmen in the draft.  We know he can score around the bucket, pop out and hit a 15-footer and play passable defense.  Whether he ever amounts to more than a hybrid Zach Randolph-David West-Al Jefferson, we won’t know.  But he should be a solid pick from Day 1.

9. Charlotte – Nic Stauskas, Michigan – Shooting Guard

Never has it been better to be a Charlotte Bobcats-now-Hornets fan.  We have an All-NBA Center in Al Jefferson.  Kemba Walker is a very capable point guard, who is due for another step forward this season.  We have an interesting core of young role players, who, if they add another element to their game could be pretty good in the NBA:  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist needs to learn how to shoot, Cody Zeller needs to gain the strength and ability to finish consistently around the basket, Jeffrey Taylor needs to quit rupturing his Achilles, and Gerald Henderson needs to become a sixth man.  The Hornets also boast a nice platter of veterans who fill the remaining holes in Josh McRoberts and Gary Neal.  Without adding any other pieces, Charlotte would likely return to the playoffs in 2015.  But with the 9, 24, and 45 picks, the Hornets have a chance to add a couple pieces that could move them into the conversation as a top-4 team in the East.  The Hornets also have upwards of $13 million in cap space to supplement their draft picks.

The glaring need for Charlotte is perimeter shooting.  Nic Stauskas shot 44% from 3 in college this past year.  He has shown signs of being able to score off the dribble, finish around the basket and defend his position with moderate success.  The Hornets shouldn’t be too concerned with Stauskas’ defensive ability, as Steve Clifford has proven he can turn even the worst defenders (Al Jefferson) into capable ones.

10. Philly – Zach LaVine, UCLA – Freak Athlete

If Philly is going to go all-in on being terrible again this season, they can go a long way in securing that by drafting LaVine out of UCLA.  Don’t get me wrong, I think LaVine could be the next Russell Westbrook.  The kid nearly jumped out of the gym at the combine with a 46 inch vertical, and he can shoot well.  His upside alone should make this pick appealing to the 76ers.

11. Denver – Dario Saric, Croatia – Power/Point Forward

All I’ve seen of Saric are his mixtapes on YouTube, but I like what I see.  It really seems like he can do it all:  shoot, pass, finish, defend.  By all accounts, he is probably the most polished PF in the draft.  Add that to Denver’s proclivity to draft foreign players, and the Saric pick here makes too much sense.  Denver is in an odd place right now in the West in that they aren’t quite good enough to be competitive, but they aren’t bad enough to be terrible.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nuggets move this pick to push the needle one way or another.
- Note:  Monday morning it was announced that Saric will likely stay in Europe for another three years, meaning no team will likely draft him on Thursday, at least not in the first round.  If I had to guess, I'd say Gary Harris gets moved here, McDermott goes to Orlando, and James Young, SF out of Kentucky goes to Minnesota.

12. Orlando – Gary Harris, Michigan St. – Shooting Guard

Harris is my least favorite player selected so far.  I am turned off by his size, only 6’4”, his 3PT shooting percentage getting worse this season, and that the only positives you read consistently are his coachability, defensive intensity and basketball IQ.  Yes, those three attributes are great, but if you aren’t big enough to defend your position or shoot from downtown, what kind of 2-guard are you?  You are Gerald Henderson, that’s who.  With Afflalo likely out the door, Harris is the logical choice here.  Just color me skeptical about his NBA future.

*Editor’s Note:  The Charlotte Hornets will almost certainly draft Harris now.

13. Minnesota – Doug McDermott, Creighton – Small Forward

We all know what McDermott can do:  the dude can shoot the freaking basketball.  We all know what he can’t do:  play defense.  With Kevin Love out of Minnesota this year or next, the T-Wolves have to consider their next moves.  I am higher on McDermott than most.  I have always subscribed to the notion that so long as you can do one thing extremely well, you can make it in the NBA – and McDermott will enter the NBA as one of the best shooters in a very long time.  I also don’t subscribe to the white-on-white comparisons McDermott always receives.  In terms of size, I think McDermott more closely resembles Paul Pierce.

14. Phoenix – Adrian Payne, Michigan St. – Power Forward

I am an Adrian Payne fan, especially on a team that likes to run and needs bigs who can shoot.  I realize the Morris Twins have a hold on that role for the Suns now, but as a team looking to break into the playoffs, loading up on assets is a smart move, especially those which may pay major dividends in the future.  I love Payne’s ability to extend the floor, and he plays hard 100% of the time.